Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.014877 0.016870 0.019036 0.021568 0.024447 0.027620 0.031386
2025-04-13 0.011198 0.013799 0.016874 0.020783 0.025628 0.031446 0.038978
2025-04-20 0.009766 0.012735 0.016452 0.021457 0.028039 0.036422 0.047952
2025-04-27 0.008714 0.011901 0.016081 0.021983 0.030131 0.041027 0.056779
2025-05-04 0.007957 0.011311 0.015892 0.022631 0.032336 0.045879 0.066331
2025-05-11 0.007095 0.010448 0.015196 0.022439 0.033272 0.048970 0.073620
2025-05-18 0.006444 0.009801 0.014711 0.022457 0.034449 0.052438 0.081720
2025-05-25 0.005807 0.009097 0.014056 0.022123 0.035015 0.054984 0.088586
2025-06-01 0.005415 0.008723 0.013853 0.022443 0.036592 0.059183 0.098415
2025-06-08 0.004970 0.008216 0.013386 0.022280 0.037348 0.062100 0.106376
2025-06-15 0.004738 0.008031 0.013411 0.022913 0.039453 0.067384 0.118802
2025-06-22 0.004273 0.007411 0.012660 0.022154 0.039102 0.068457 0.123947
2025-06-29 0.003926 0.006971 0.012183 0.021848 0.039543 0.070995 0.132079
2025-07-06 0.003533 0.006414 0.011459 0.021035 0.039002 0.071738 0.136990
2025-07-13 0.003408 0.006326 0.011556 0.021718 0.041260 0.077769 0.152481
2025-07-20 0.003271 0.006203 0.011575 0.022250 0.043274 0.083507 0.167954
2025-07-27 0.003160 0.006120 0.011657 0.022906 0.045575 0.089988 0.185540
2025-08-03 0.002953 0.005830 0.011322 0.022712 0.046168 0.093148 0.196605
2025-08-10 0.002788 0.005611 0.011105 0.022730 0.047184 0.097233 0.209997
2025-08-17 0.002599 0.005325 0.010730 0.022392 0.047425 0.099732 0.220198
2025-08-24 0.002494 0.005204 0.010677 0.022716 0.049091 0.105363 0.237847
2025-08-31 0.002348 0.004985 0.010406 0.022551 0.049680 0.108723 0.250691
2025-09-07 0.002288 0.004945 0.010503 0.023192 0.052100 0.116298 0.274012